First, a word of appreciation to StatiSense. The figures contained in your publication, “BAT 3 YEARS IN OFFICE — THE GOOD, THE BAD & THE UGLY,” have contributed to an important national conversation. Statistics matter. They help us measure progress, expose shortcomings, and hold governments accountable.
But numbers, by themselves, rarely tell the full story.
A country is not a spreadsheet. Context matters. Timing matters. Starting points matter. Any fair assessment of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s first three years should begin with two simple questions:
What exactly did this administration inherit? And perhaps more importantly:
Are the difficult reforms undertaken since May 2023 beginning to produce results?
That is where the debate should be. For now, we will leave aside the many positive indicators that could have been highlighted more extensively and focus on the areas identified as “The Bad” and “The Ugly.”
THE BAD: LOOKING BEYOND THE HEADLINES
- GDP Fell From $487 Billion to $377 Billion
At first glance, that looks like a straightforward economic decline. It isn’t. Nigeria’s GDP in dollar terms is heavily influenced by the value of the naira. When the exchange rate moved from an artificially managed level of roughly ₦460 per dollar to a market-determined rate above ₦1,300 per dollar, the arithmetic changed dramatically. The same economy, measured in a weaker currency, will naturally appear smaller when converted to dollars.
This phenomenon is not unique to Nigeria. Egypt experienced it. Argentina experienced it. Several emerging economies have seen similar on-paper contractions following major currency adjustments. A more useful question is whether the economy itself is still growing.
The answer is yes.
Real GDP growth has remained positive, and projections place Nigeria among the faster-growing major economies on the African continent. That does not erase the hardship many Nigerians feel, but it does suggest an economy that is adjusting rather than collapsing.
- Debt Has Increased
Yes, public debt has risen.
Nobody disputes that. What often goes unmentioned, however, is that the structure of public finance has changed significantly over the same period. The removal of fuel subsidy ended one of the largest recurring drains on government finances. States now receive substantially higher FAAC allocations. Capital spending has increased. Road construction, rail projects, power investments and security spending have all expanded.
Debt, on its own, tells only half the story. The real question is what the money is being used for. Borrowing to fund consumption is one thing. Borrowing to build infrastructure that expands economic activity is another.
That distinction matters.
- The Cost of Living Crisis
This is probably the strongest criticism of the administration. Food prices have risen sharply. Transportation costs have increased. Rent, electricity, and everyday household expenses have placed enormous pressure on families. Nobody should pretend otherwise. But it is equally true that much of this pain emerged from reforms that previous governments repeatedly postponed. Fuel subsidy removal. Exchange-rate unification. The dismantling of multiple foreign exchange windows. These changes were always going to be disruptive. The administration’s argument is that the alternative, continuing to subsidise consumption while revenues weakened and fiscal pressures mounted, would eventually have led to a far deeper crisis.
Whether one agrees with that argument or not, it is important to understand the reasoning behind the reforms. Government interventions such as the student loan scheme, wage awards, a new national minimum wage, consumer credit programmes, agricultural support initiatives and expanded social investment programmes were introduced as cushioning measures.
The debate should not be whether the pain exists. It does. The debate is whether the reforms eventually produce benefits large enough to justify the sacrifice.
- The Naira’s Depreciation
The naira has undoubtedly lost value. No serious observer denies that reality. What is often forgotten is what existed before. Businesses struggled to obtain foreign exchange. Investors complained about being unable to repatriate funds. A complicated system of multiple exchange rates created opportunities for arbitrage that benefited a small group of insiders while distorting the wider economy. The unification of exchange rates exposed underlying weaknesses that had been masked for years.
Painful? Absolutely. Necessary? Many economists believe so. What matters now is whether stability gradually returns and confidence in the foreign exchange market continues to improve.
- GDP Per Capita Has Fallen
Again, this figure is closely linked to currency depreciation. There is also another factor that receives far less attention. Nigeria’s population continues to grow rapidly. An economy can be expanding and still struggle to generate enough growth to significantly improve income per person. That challenge did not begin in 2023. It is one of Nigeria’s longest-running structural problems.
THE UGLY: SECURITY AND FUEL PRICES
- Terrorism Rankings
The StatiSense report notes Nigeria’s movement in global terrorism rankings. Rankings are useful, but they are not always sufficient. Security professionals typically examine a wider set of indicators. Who controls territory? How frequently are attacks occurring? How quickly can security agencies respond? What operational capabilities do insurgent groups still possess?
By those measures, today’s security environment differs significantly from the period when Boko Haram controlled large portions of territory in the North-East. This is not to suggest that the security situation is satisfactory. Far from it. Banditry remains a major challenge. Kidnappings continue. Communities in several regions still face serious threats. But comparisons should recognise the differences between today’s security threats and those that existed a decade ago.
- Rising Fatalities
Every life lost is one too many. The fatalities in parts of the country are deeply concerning.
Yet analysts point out that many recent deaths have stemmed from a mix of conflicts, communal violence, banditry, and organised criminal activity rather than conventional terrorism alone. That distinction does not reduce the tragedy. It simply helps explain the complexity of the challenge.
The government’s response has included increased security funding, expanded military operations, intelligence reforms and a renewed focus on dismantling criminal networks and their financiers. The allocation to defence and security in recent budgets reflects the scale of that commitment.
- Fuel Prices
This is the issue most Nigerians feel every day. A trip to the petrol station is enough to understand why. But there is a question that cannot be avoided:
Was the old fuel price sustainable? The evidence suggests it was not.
For years, Nigeria spent trillions of naira maintaining an artificially low pump price. The subsidy regime became synonymous with leakages, smuggling, opaque accounting and persistent allegations of corruption. The government took the view that the arrangement could no longer continue.
The decision was painful. Perhaps the most politically difficult decision of the administration so far. But supporters of the policy argue that resources previously consumed by subsidy payments can now be redirected toward infrastructure, education, healthcare, security and support for state governments. Reasonable people can disagree on the pace and execution. What is harder to dispute is that the old system had become increasingly unsustainable.
- WHAT THE REPORT UNDERPLAYS
a) States Are Receiving More Revenue
This may be one of the most consequential developments since 2023. Monthly FAAC allocations have risen dramatically. For many states, this has translated into stronger fiscal capacity, improved salary payments, increased infrastructure spending and greater room to meet financial obligations. The significance of this shift is often overlooked in national conversations.
b) Foreign Reserves Have Improved
Nigeria’s foreign reserves have strengthened considerably.
That matters. Higher reserves improve the country’s ability to meet external obligations, support investor confidence and provide a stronger buffer against economic shocks.
b) The Stock Market Surge
The remarkable performance of the Nigerian stock market is not merely a speculative story. Investors tend to place money where they see future value.
Record market performance has been driven by stronger corporate earnings, banking-sector recapitalisation efforts, improved investor sentiment and expectations that current reforms may yield long-term gains.
c) Student Loans
For decades, access to education financing has remained a major challenge for many families. The Nigerian Education Loan Fund represents one of the most ambitious attempts yet to address that problem. The scale of disbursement and the number of beneficiaries already recorded suggest that the reform’s impact may become clearer over time.
d) Infrastructure
Roads, Rail, Ports, Power. These are not projects that transform economies overnight. Their impact is measured over years, sometimes decades. Government reports indicate thousands of kilometres of roads under construction or rehabilitation across the country, alongside ongoing investments in transport and energy infrastructure. The scale of activity is difficult to ignore.
THE BIGGER PICTURE
Three years into this administration, the truth lies somewhere between the extremes. Nigeria is in the middle of one of the most ambitious economic restructuring efforts since the return to democratic rule in 1999. The reforms have been painful. For millions of Nigerians, painfully so. That reality should never be minimised.
At the same time, there are growing signs that some of the underlying objectives of those reforms are emerging: stronger public revenues, improved reserves, increased investor confidence, expanded infrastructure spending, and a more transparent foreign exchange regime.
Whether these gains ultimately translate into lower inflation, more jobs, better security and higher living standards remains the question that history will answer. Three years is enough time to judge the courage of the decisions. It is probably not enough time to fully judge their outcome.
Hon. Victor Okebunmi
Senior Special Assistant (Publicity)
Renewed Hope Global
