Iran, in 1980, planted mines, and one mine struck a US Navy ship. In response, the US military sunk the Iranian navy Iran learned a lesson that applies to this day: never attack frontallyIran MO has been to fund groups to attack the US and Isreal, but always stayed in the background Iran had Isreal surrounded, Hamas in Gaza, various groups in the West Bank and the crown jewel of Hizballah in Lebanon Both nations have a weakness Israel is a reservist army.
They can’t fight for extended periods; their soldiers have other jobsIran has an outdated airforce and has to rely on missiles to project powerNow, let’s go today.
After October 7th, Israel reset the strategic table. Hamas exists, but not as a military force; Isreal has taken control of the Philadelphia corridor near Rafah, which means no resupply for Hamas. Isreal also carried out extensive raids in the West Bank and has degraded the Palestine armed groups thereNow Hizballah, it’s been decapitated, but it lives and can fight. Isreal is currently In the process of getting Hizballah away from the border of Isreal So, back to Iran, Isreal has embarrassed Iran by killing the Hamas leader in Theran, especially Iran also was not going to let the assassination of the Hizballah chief stand without a response Iran has now responded, and Israel will respond.
My real issue is what Iran has said it will do, which is attack other oil producers. If Iran attacks others, then oil goes to $300 and a global recession. However, it will link Israel with the Arabs to destroy the economy of the Persians. Iran has to be careful. Remember, the unspoken issue is that the Arab states are fighting a Persian State; that’s what happened in Syria; Iran could be walking into a well-laid trap.