“We are looking at a potential collapse of the Northwest and North-Central regions if this incursion is not urgently addressed,” said Bassey Dang, a retired Senior Nigerian Defense Intelligence Officer, in a telephone interview with TruthNigeria.
He was referring to the growing terrorist infiltration in and around Kainji, located in Niger State, North-Central Nigeria.
Kainji: A Defense Expert’s Assessment
“Strategically, Kainji is a critical national asset demanding focused security consideration,” asserted a defense expert.
“Its location along the Niger River, close to the Benin Republic border, positions it as a vital frontier zone. The Kainji Dam is Nigeria’s primary hydroelectric facility—its disruption would cripple the national grid, impacting industries, essential services, and civilian morale nationwide. This infrastructure alone makes it a high-value target requiring robust protection.”
“Furthermore, its proximity, just 100 miles from Minna (Niger State capital) and roughly 240 miles from Abuja, places it within a concerning operational reach of the capital. Kainji Lake National Park, while ecologically significant, also presents a vast, difficult-to-monitor area vulnerable to illicit cross-border movement and resource exploitation, which could fuel further instability.”
According to him, the dam’s water management system is also crucial for downstream agriculture and communities, factors intrinsically linked to regional stability. In essence, Kainji’s power generation, strategic location, and environmental significance converge to make its security paramount for Nigeria’s economic resilience, territorial integrity, and national defense.
Kainji Under Attack
Foreign jihadist groups—including Jama’a Nusrat al-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), and the “Mahmuda” faction of Darul Salam—have been infiltrating Nigeria’s Kainji region since 2021 via porous borders with Benin Republic, which lies both south and north of Nigeria in that corridor.
Foreign Terrorists Migrate Toward Nigeria’s Major Power-generating Town
These militants exploit the dense forests and abandoned villages in Kainji Lake National Park as operational bases for attacks, arms trafficking, extortion of local communities, and ideological indoctrination. Despite drone surveillance and sporadic military patrols, the government’s response has been inadequate.
While international media have issued warnings about the infiltration of jihadist groups in the Kainji region, most Nigerian media outlets have largely ignored the looming danger.
Since 2021, the region has witnessed a steady surge in attacks by foreign-backed jihadist groups such as ISWAP, Ansaru, JNIM, and Darul Salam. In October 2022, ISWAP fighters attacked the Wawa Cantonment near Kainji to free detained comrades. Sahelian extremists linked to JNIM and Darul Salam have entrenched themselves in forested zones within the Kainji Lake National Park, using it for logistics, recruitment, and terror campaigns.
In April 2025, the Mahmuda faction killed 15 people in the Kaiama area of Kwara State while enforcing sharia-style levies. ISWAP’s role in high-profile prison breaks and JNIM’s cross-border raids into neighboring Benin further underscore the Kainji area’s emerging role as a jihadist sanctuary within Nigeria’s porous northwest-central corridor.
Kainji Under Siege: Jets in the Sky, No Boots on the Ground
While federal authorities boast of airstrikes and the procurement of 50 new fighter aircraft, militants loyal to Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) an Al-Qaeda affiliate have quietly established camps within Kainji National Park.
Intelligence sources warn that JNIM may be preparing a major offensive into North-Central Nigeria from this forested stronghold in Niger State. Yet, there is no national emergency declaration. No coordinated ground response.
The federal government’s aircraft procurement includes AH-1 Cobra attack helicopters, M-346 light fighters, AW109 helicopters, and CASA 295 surveillance planes. However, military analysts warn that air power alone cannot secure rugged terrain such as Kainji, where insurgents operate under forest cover. They argue that air operations must be matched with ground forces to be effective.
As JNIM fighters consolidate, the risk grows not just to Kainji’s biodiversity and border communities, but to the broader fabric of Nigeria’s national security.
Security experts agree that while the Nigerian military has the capability to destroy these insurgent groups, it lacks the personnel strength needed for sustained ground operations across such difficult terrain.
Too Few Boots on the Ground
According to Gambo Saadu Moriki, a security analyst, “The Nigerian military is stretched thin across all 36 states. They’re manning checkpoints and holding positions in forests, hills, and deserts doing their best to protect Nigerians,” he told TruthNigeria.
“But for a country of 230 million people, Nigeria has only about 350,000 men under arms. That number is woefully inadequate,” Moriki added.
Nigeria’s military is significantly undermanned in the face of widespread insecurity. In 2022, former Minister of Defence, retired General Bashir Magahi, observed:
“Nigeria has a total military strength of about 223,000 personnel. This gives a ratio of military personnel to the population of approximately 1 soldier per 11,000 people. That’s not sustainable for a country battling multiple security threats.”
Magahi urged the government to act swiftly.“The Nigerian military is overburdened. We need to recruit at least 12,000 soldiers every six months to bolster our capacity.”
Independent estimates, including those from Global Firepower, place Nigeria’s active military strength slightly higher—between 230,000 and 280,000 personnel. But even at the high end, the shortfall remains stark. Given the multiple fronts of terrorism, banditry, and separatist unrest, Nigeria must urgently expand its armed forces.
Without a significantly stronger ground force, defeating the insurgency and restoring national security will remain a distant goal.
Nigeria’s Multiple Civil Wars
The Nigerian military is fighting to suppress multiple armed conflicts across the country, says David Onyillokwu Idah, Director of the International Human Rights Commission (IHRC) in Abuja, in an interview with TruthNigeria.
“In the Southeast, the military is fighting in Ebonyi, Imo, and Anambra states against the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), a separatist group seeking independence for the predominantly Christian eastern region of Nigeria,” Idah explained.
The military is also working to contain militant activities in the Niger Delta.
In the Northeast, more troops have been deployed to Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa states to combat Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP). “The military is battling resurgent Fulani terrorists and jihadist groups across the region,” he added.
“Given all this, it’s clear the looming crisis in Kainji has not received the full attention of the Nigerian government. But if jihadists are allowed to occupy Kainji, millions of homes, industries, and businesses across the country could lose electricity. That alone could set Nigeria back by at least twenty years,” Idah warned.
