American farmers are confronting rising fertiliser costs and heightened economic pressures as the ongoing US-Israeli conflict with Iran disrupts global supply chains ahead of the planting season. According to agricultural analysts, the war has intensified trade disruptions, sending fertiliser prices soaring and compounding the financial strain on producers already grappling with low crop prices and rising production expenses.
Jim Martin, a farmer in Illinois cultivating soybeans, corn, and other crops, described the situation as “deeply troubling” for agricultural producers. While he secured fertiliser supplies for the current season, Martin noted that prices remain historically high, calling them “the highest they’ve been in years.”
Experts link the surge in fertiliser costs to interruptions in global shipping routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a third of the world’s fertilisers transit, according to Kpler. Maritime traffic has largely halted since the conflict began, with missile activity reportedly threatening shipping lanes. The war escalated after US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, triggering broader regional instability.
The United States relies heavily on imported fertilisers, with approximately 35 per cent of domestic supply sourced from the Middle East, including phosphorus and nitrogen products, according to Veronica Nigh, chief economist at The Fertiliser Institute. She highlighted a near 30 per cent increase in urea prices per short ton between late February and early March.
The price surge has prompted warnings from agricultural organisations about potential impacts on food production. Zippy Duvall, President of the American Farm Bureau Federation, cautioned that failure to prioritise critical farm inputs could trigger a shortfall in crop output, potentially causing wider economic consequences and inflation.
Farmers who delayed fertiliser purchases amid high prices are now facing the brunt of the cost increase. Jacquie Holland, an economist with the American Soybean Association, noted that some producers postponed acquisitions due to affordability concerns, leaving them vulnerable to the recent surge.
Beyond fertiliser, other farm expenses—including seeds, pesticides, and healthcare—are rising, intensifying financial stress for producers. Aaron Lehman, a corn, soybean, and oat farmer in Iowa, described the mounting economic pressures and highlighted increasing reliance on loans to sustain operations. Previous federal aid of $12 billion, announced by former President Donald Trump, has been insufficient to offset the combined effects of trade disruptions, low crop prices, and escalating production costs.
The fertiliser crisis could directly affect crop yields if producers reduce application rates to cut expenses. Nigh estimates that fertiliser contributes to roughly 50 per cent of agricultural production, suggesting that lower usage could reduce output and revenue. Some farmers may also adjust planting strategies, shifting to crops requiring less fertiliser. Martin indicated that while his current plans remain unchanged, future adjustments may include increasing soybean acreage, which demands less fertiliser than corn.
Meanwhile, the war has heightened tensions beyond agriculture. Iran has issued warnings to diaspora members who publicly support the US-Israeli campaign, threatening property confiscation and legal penalties. The Iranian prosecutor general’s office issued the directive following celebrations abroad over the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with Mojtaba Khamenei named as his successor. Iranian expatriates, numbering between five and ten million and largely residing in the United States and Western Europe, have faced increasing online harassment and political pressure, and the property seizure threat marks a significant escalation.
